According to an SMS Morgan Poll conducted over two nights, November 19-20 2014 the ALP 55% on a two-party preferred basis (up 1.5% since November 7-10, 2014) holds a clear election-winning lead over the L-NP 45% (down 1.5%) according to a representative cross-section of 1,042 Victorian electors.
“Opposition Leader Dan Andrews has grabbed a significant lead with a week to go before the Victorian Election with the ALP (55%) well ahead of the L-NP (45%) on a two-party preferred basis. A victory for the Labor Party will mean the Liberal Government of Ted Baillieu and Denis Napthine will be the first one-term Government in Victoria since John Cain Snr. in 1952-1955.” Gary Morgan commented.
Mr Morgan went on to explain that on primary voting intention the ALP 35.5% (down 0.5%) is just in front of the L-NP 35% (down 3%). The ALP’s two-party preferred lead is strong because the high 19.5% (up 1%) primary vote for the Greens is boosting the ALP two-party preferred vote. Other minor parties include The Australian Sex Party 3% (up 3%), Family First 2% (unchanged) and Independents/Others 5% (down 0.5%).
“Although the two major parties are almost level on primary vote: ALP (35.5%) cf. L-NP (35%), the high expected Greens vote (19.5%) would ensure a strong flow of preferences to the ALP. If the high expected Greens vote is maintained over the final week of the campaign a strong Greens vote gives the Greens a good chance of winning their first lower house seat at a Victorian Election in one of the Inner Melbourne seats of Brunswick, Melbourne, Northcote or Richmond.” Mr Morgan commented.
Mr Morgan suggested that for there to be any chance of a late fightback, Victoria Premier Denis Napthine must maintain that his proposed infrastructure on roads and transport will improve the Victorian economy and provide jobs for the many Victorians without work. Today a massive 8.8% of Victorians are unemployed and 9.2% are under-employed (Roy Morgan unemployment estimates September/October 2014)